With all the religions out there, how can you know that Christianity is true? How can you know whether the Bible actually gives the accurate and correct story of the world?
How do you know that Christianity isn’t just a fairy tale, made up by people to help them cope with hardship and death, and deal with life?
That’s the question which the Apostle Peter addresses in 2 Peter 1:16-21, which we studied this past Sunday at White Fields Church in the sermon titled, “Dawn is Coming” (2 Peter 1:16-21)
Peter essentially gives two evidences for why we can trust the Bible:
- Christianity is based on historical facts which had many eye-witnesses
- The record of Messianic prophecies which Jesus fulfilled
The Test & the Evidence
The Book of the Prophet Isaiah contains an incredible claim: the Lord God is contrasting himself with the pagan gods which many people worshiped in the form of idols, and God says, Here is how you will know that I am the one true God, and those so-called ‘gods’ are nothing: I will tell you the end from the beginning; I will tell you what will happen before it happens, and then when those things come to pass, that will be the proof to you that I alone am God. See: Isaiah 44:6-8; 46:9-10; 48:5-6
So God himself challenges us to put him to the test, and he goes on record predicting things about the future which will come to pass. Roughly 1/3 of the Bible is made up of prophecies, including many about the promised Messiah, which predicted various things about his identity and actions.
According to one calculation, there are 332 Messianic prophecies from the Hebrew Bible (Old Testament), which Jesus fulfilled.
This is why the Dead Sea Scrolls are such a big deal: they date back to about 100 years before the birth of Jesus, which shows us that the prophecies which Jesus fulfilled were indeed written before his birth, and were not later redactions or additions. See: Why the Dead Sea Scrolls Matter for Christians
Peter Stoner’s Calculations
Professor Peter W. Stoner was Chairman of the Departments of Mathematics and Astronomy at Pasadena City College and Chairman of the science division at Westmont College. In his book, Science Speaks, Professor Stoner outlines the mathematical probability of one person in the first century fulfilling just eight of the most clear and straightforward Messianic prophecies.
Josh and Sean McDowell quote Stoner in their book, Evidence That Demands a Verdict:
We find that the chance that any man might have lived down to the present time and fulfilled all eight prophecies is 1 in 1017 (1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000).
In case you’re wondering, the Mega Millions had a $1.6 billon jackpot in October 2018, and the odds of winning it were merely 1 in 302,575,350. 
Stoner went on to calculate the probability of one person fulfilling 48 prophecies: 1 in 10157.
In case you’re questioning whether Professor Stoner’s math was wrong, H. Harold Hartzler, PhD, of the American Scientific Affiliation, Goshen College, writes in the forward of Stoner’s book:
The manuscript for Science Speaks has been carefully reviewed by a committee of the American Scientific Affiliation members and by the Executive Council of the same group and has been found, in general, to be dependable and accurate in regard to the scientific material presented. The mathematical analysis included is based upon principles of probability which are thoroughly sound and Professor Stoner has applied these principles in a proper and convincing way.
What Makes Christianity Unique
Along with eye-witness evidence of historical events (testimony for which people died, suffered imprisonment, torture, and the torture of their loved ones), and the prophetic record, something else that sets Christianity apart from all other religions and philosophies is the path of salvation it presents:
Whereas other religions offer ways to save yourself or endear yourself to God through doing actions, or keeping rules – the gospel message of the Bible is that you cannot save yourself, no matter how hard you try – but that God has done for you in Christ that which you could never do for yourself, in order to save you – because he already loves you.
That’s much better news, and a promise you can take to the bank.
8 thoughts on “The Statistical Probability of Jesus Fulfilling the Messianic Prophecies”
Thank u Nick. Shared with a few friends…
Awesome! Thanks Glenn.
What is the threshold of improbability to impossibility in exponential terms. What is commonly thought to be impossibility. 10 ^-10? 10^-15? 10^-8? Someone stated it on Christian radio recently, but I was in the middle of other things and didn’t write it down. If you have that answer, I would appreciate it. Thanks.
Good question. I’m not sure.
In statistical hypothesis testing a typical level of significance is 0.05 . And a n observed significance level of 0.001 is normally reported as strong evidence against the bill hypothesis.
In researching this area I found that many mathematicians consider that great than 1 chance in 10^50 to be impossible.